2016 Election Eve Methodology

Methodology Statement: Asian American Decisions 2016 Election Eve Poll

Asian American Decisions completed 2,391 interviews with self-identified Asian Americans who had already voted early, or were certain to vote in the November 8, 2016 general election. The survey was in field between November 1st and November 7th, 2016. 48% of the sample reported voting early and 52% were certain to vote.

 

Interviews were conducted using a blended sample of online surveys (50%) and telephone calls on landlines (30%) and cellphones (20%). Telephone interviews were conducted with live callers and with bilingual interviewers available at the point of contact for those respondents needing a Chinese, Korean, Tagalog, or Vietnamese language interview. Overall, 76% of interviews were completed in English and 24% in an Asian language.

 

Voters were pre-screened based on their vote history in previous midterm elections, and date of registration to include a mix of new registrants and first- time voters as well as those who had confirmed vote history in 2008 and 2012 elections. Respondents were asked if they had already voted early, and if not, if they were 100% certain they would vote on November 7th. The interview for any respondent who was not certain was terminated. Using this same methodology in 2010, 88% of the interviewed sample was subsequently confirmed (validated) as having voted when examining official vote records, with no meaningful deviation from reported totals.

 

For the 7 oversampled individual states, a minimum of 200 interviews were completed to provide state-specific reliable estimates and carry an overall margin of error ranging from ± 6.2% to ± 6.8%. For the remaining 43 states and the District of Columbia an additional national sample was completed, and then combined with the 7 stand-alone state samples and weighted for an overall combined nationally proportionate sample. The national sample of 2,391 is directly proportionate to the Asian American voter population nationwide, and is weighted to reflect the known Census demographics for Asian American voters and carries a margin of error of ± 2.0%.

 

 

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